This is just a sample of what you will find in each report . This is the most recent

Sample from report posted May 4th 2010 (unedited )

What a roller coaster ride in the last few weeks . Up strong one day , down the next , up again following that .  Overall I am not surprised .

 This time period was always on my watch list as a progressive time zone that would get more negative as we moved forward along the calendar days .

 Tuesday’s action for me was exactly what I needed to see to finally start putting some targets on where we would be headed for at a minimum

 This is expected to be the largest decline since the Late 2008 /early 2009 lows were put in .  In fact , we would expect this decline to not only just hit the minimum price decline but to greatly exceed it . This is based on the fact that on many markets I follow , we needed to hold the recent lows and start seeing new highs early this week to void the current down cycle phase in play .

 Monday’s rally was the set up , but Tuesday’s decline , below Monday’s open was exactly the price action I was expecting to see  if the down phase was now in force . It is !!!

The above chart is for the Dow Daily .  There were a few projections I had used (never posted ) for potential top area once we started to climb higher in early April . This level has provided resistance and since then price has reacted more on the down side which is what one would expect if this chart is active and pattern is playing itself out .

 The first target highlighted is the 9000-9200 level which is still an unfulfilled target from last Fall . This targets I find then to stick and eventually get hit on subsequent cycles . This same target is now part of the current price pattern which is based on the 1.618% price extension from price peak to prior low . 

 Also the Arc indication shows that the price action in January 2010 created a pattern that is now linking to both the current high and a target down to 9000 by mid June to early August .  A break below 10200 would confirm the pattern . Which is where the lower boundary of the arc will be next week .

 When these arc work , they are like magic and can forecast price and time with accuracy . I have not yet revealed time targets as I want to ensure we have an active and confirmed pattern . All the signs suggest that we are well on our way to doing so.

 Now looking at Natural Gas , this is one that has been taking it’s time forming a bottom . We still have some cyclical work to do , but it would seem that by Mid May we should be turning up again  .

 We’ve waited patiently to enter into new positions in this sector but we are now ready to do so . We are looking to add long  4 units of UNG :ETF to the sample portfolio on Wednesday to our existing position .

I mentioned last week that I suspected that Google  that may be already be reacting to the negative energy  and with Tuesday’s trade below the February 2010 lows in GOOG , it helps to confirm the rest of the market for me . That this will be a bigger correction than we’ve seen in a while.

 The Canadian Dollar is under stress , and it’s rise above par did not last long as I suspected it would .  The Euro is under serious stress and it’s effect look to hinder it into year end , early 2011.   McDonald sells more burgers overseas, so a strong US Dollar , weaker Euro /Yen would not be good for earnings .

 We’ve discussed McDonald’s in prior reports , and here too I am ready to add a short to the sample Portfolio of 1 unit

 We may see some more back and forth gyrating in the markets but the overall impact of the last few days is something that I was looking for and price did what it was supposed too  , which gives me confidence that over the few months , pressure in the markets will become more pronounced and we will look back at this time period as having marked the change in trend .

 See you next week

Next report will be posted Tuesday  May 11th 2010.

Here's the Same Dow Chart as of May 20th 2010  - 2 weeks later.

 

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